New Nuclear Reactors: The 401 Tunnel of Energy

  • The Government of Ontario has not released any cost estimates for the building of four NEW nuclear reactors at Darlington, but is proceeding anyway.

  • Based on recent U.S. experience, project costs will likely be in the range of $26 billion.

  • The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) estimates that new nuclear power will cost 2- 3 times more than new wind and solar power.

  • Ontario has many options for storing variable power, including stationary batteries, EV batteries and coordination with Quebec’s massive hydro reservoirs, which can act like a battery.

  • It could take at least 15 years to complete this project — it took 20 years to bring new reactors into full service at the Vogtle Nuclear Plant in Georgia, the last completed nuclear project in the U.S.

  • Every new nuclear project in Ontario’s history has gone massively over budget.

  • No new commercial reactors are under construction in the U.S.

  • 85% of new electricity supply added worldwide last year came from renewables.

  • Solar and wind energy deployment continues to skyrocket worldwide with costs still falling.

Jurisdictions that integrate high levels of wind and solar will have a massive competitive advantage, with low-cost power and a strong reputation for climate action.

Notes

In April 2024 Georgia Power finished building the Vogtle nuclear plant at a cost of $35 billion. The two reactors had a combined capacity of 2,228 megawatts (MW). Therefore the cost was $15.7 million per MW (US$) or $21.8 million per MW (CDN$). The four new Darlington reactors would have a total capacity of 1200 MW. 1200 MW x $21.8 million per MW = $26.2 billion.

For the $35 billion cost estimate see: https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-new-vogtle-nuclear-reactor-now-online-completing-expansion/TX5IKFCXZ5EQ3AWY6SQRBOXQW4/

For 2,228 MW capacity and fact that no new commercial reactors are under construction in U.S. see: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61963

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is proposing to build small modular reactors (SMRs) at Clinch River, Tennessee. According to pages E-3 and E-9 of its Integrated Resource Plan 2025, (September 2024), the overnight capital cost of the first unit would be $17,949 per kW (US$) and $12,471 per kW (US$) for subsequent units. That is, according to TVA, the total overnight capital cost of a four-unit nuclear station with a capacity of 1,200 MW would be $23.1 billion (CDN$). Overnight cost is the total cost of a construction project if no interest charges are incurred during construction – as if the project was completed “overnight”. In fact, long-duration nuclear projects incur very significant interest charges. Therefore, their actual costs are significantly higher than their overnight costs.

For the TVA’s Integrated Resource Plan 2025 see: https://tva-azr-eastus-cdn-ep-tvawcm-prd.azureedge.net/cdn-tvawcma/docs/default-source/environment/environmental-stewardship/integrated-resource-plan/2025/draft-2025-irp-volume-1-092324.pdf?sfvrsn=26f01b64_1

For IESO analysis of levelized costs of wind, solar and nuclear see https://www.cleanairalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ieso-wind-solar.pdf

According to the IESO, it can take 10 to 15 years to build new nuclear reactors. See Pathways to Decarbonization, (December 2022), page 4. It took 20 years from permit application to start up for the Vogtle Nuclear Plant in Georgia to become operational. https://apnews.com/article/nuclear-power-georgia-vogtle-reactors-8fbf41a3e04c656002a6ee8203988fad The Hinkley Point C reactor in the UK is currently expected to be completed 15 years after the start of construction. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/23/hinkley-point-c-could-be-delayed-to-2031-and-cost-up-to-35bn-says-edf

In 2023, renewables accounted for 85 percent of new electricity capacity worldwide, according to new data from the International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-85-of-new-electricity-built-in-2023-was-clean-energy